Probabeel (NZ) Prevails in Epic Caulfield Clash

11 October 2021

Stellar mare Probabeel wins the Group One A$1m Neds Might And Power Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield. Photo: Bruno Cannatelli.

Superstar New Zealand mare Probabeel (NZ) (Savabeel) lifted her Group One tally to four with a pulsating victory in Saturday’s A$1m Neds Might And Power Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield. 

Raced by Cambridge Stud owners Brendan and Jo Lindsay, Probabeel was bought for $380,000 at Book 1 of Karaka 2018 by Te Akau Racing principal David Ellis. The Waikato Stud-bred standout has now won 12 of her 27 starts and more than $4 million, including Group One triumphs in the Surround Stakes (1400m), Epsom Handicap (1600m), Futurity Stakes (1400m) and Might And Power Stakes.

Saturday’s Caulfield performance ranks among Probabeel’s most memorable. She was completely overshadowed in the lead-up to the race by Australia’s boom horse Zaaki (Leroidesanimaux), who had won all of his last five starts.

But as Saturday’s five-horse field hit full bore around the home turn and began to wage a desperate battle to the finish, Probabeel outsprinted Zaaki and dived through along the inside to make her bid.

She was soon joined wider out on the track by Nonconformist (Rebel Raider), and the pair drew clear to fight out a superb head-bobbing finish. Despite emptying her fuel tank, Probabeel repelled everything Nonconformist threw at her and held on to win by a nose. Zaaki finished another length and a quarter away in third.

“In the last 100 metres, she had nothing left but she just kept trying her heart out,” jockey Brett Prebble said. “She’s all guts and determination.”

Probabeel delivered the second leg of a Saturday stakes double at Caulfield for the Lindsays, Prebble, Ellis and trainer Jamie Richards, who teamed up to win the Listed Weekend Hussler (1400m) earlier in the day with Kahma Lass (NZ) (Darci Brahma).

“Probabeel was just so brave,” Richards enthused. “It’s probably not her real racing style, poking up the fence like that, but she was in for the fight and really gave it 100%. Very proud of her. It was a fantastic win and she’s a warrior that never knows when to quit.”

Ellis believes Probabeel is now a leading contender for the A$5m Group One Cox Plate (2040m) at Moonee Valley on October 23.

“It was an absolutely incredible race, shows what a great mare she is and typifies the sorts of horses we are trying to buy at Te Akau,” Ellis said.

“Probabeel had the sheer class to win a Karaka Million (1200m) when far from physically mature as a two-year-old, but as she’s developed and strengthened, she’s gone on at three, four, and now as a five-year-old.

“She’s proved she’s up to the best in this part of the world, and she just needs a decent track in the Cox Plate.

“Cambridge Stud has been such a tremendous supporter of Te Akau. Brendan and Jo, and their amazing CEO Henry Plumptre, allow us the freedom to train them as we like. It’s such a thrill to have their colours win two stakes races on the same day at Caulfield. It’s such a competitive stage, and I don’t think people realise just how hard it is to achieve.”

Vendor Waikato Stud
Purchaser Mr DC Ellis (Te Akau)
Breeding Savabeel – Far Fetched
Sale Lot 203, 2018 Book 1, $380,000
Bred by G J Chittick